Hundred-Year View

Scrub a design from 2026 to 2126 and watch what a century actually costs it: the site's warming offset in Δ°F, and a carbon curve that climbs with every year of operations, bends as the grid decarbonizes, and steps each time the glazing or the roof is replaced — with the crossover year where the century overtakes the up-front spike. The assumptions driving all of it (conditioned hours, grid target, service lives) are yours to set and argue with. Each lane says out loud when its data runs out (solid = modeled, dashed = extrapolated). Reads the Work's saved Architect design, or runs the studio's default pavilion as a worked example. No AI calls.

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Running Eco-Architect's default pavilion (a worked example, not your Work). Save a design to a Work from Eco-Architect V4 and it replaces this one — the assumptions below stay yours either way.

2026

Climate — warming offset

no data — see below

  • Climate deltas not loaded yet — they come from the Open-Meteo Climate API for the design's site; if the fetch fails the lane stays dark rather than inventing a curve.

Carbon — embodied + operational

31,446 kgCO₂e in 2026 modeled

dashed throughout — only 2026 is modeled, so every later year on this curve is your assumptions running forward

Embodied (year 0)
30,700 kg
Replacements to 2026
0 kg
Operations to 2026
747 kg
Crossover year
2106
  • The stored design carries geometry only — no comfort run, so the conditioned hours below are YOUR assumption, not a measured figure. Load a climate in Eco-Architect V4 and run comfort to replace it with the design's own hours.

The century's assumptions

Every number below is an assumption, not a measurement — yours to set and to argue with. They are what turns a building into a hundred-year story, so the curves above move when you move them.

h/yr

Hours a year the building runs heating or cooling. A comfort run in Eco-Architect V4 measures this; until then it is a guess. Zero = never conditioned.

kW

Average electrical draw during those hours — a small heat pump duty-cycling, not a measured load. The operational slope scales straight off this.

% of today

Where the US grid ends up, as a share of the cited eGRID2022 figure (0.373 kgCO₂/kWh), reached on a straight line. 100% freezes today's grid for a century — try it and watch what that assumption alone was worth.

After this year the grid holds flat. At 2026 the curve is using 0.373 kgCO₂/kWh.

yr

How long before the glazing is torn out and re-bought at its full embodied cost (module B4). 0 = never replaced — the assumption this tool used to make silently.

yr

Same for the roof build-up. A thin sheet roof is a wearing surface; over a century the difference between 40 and 50 years is a whole extra replacement.

How this works

No lane predicts. “Modeled” means an engine computed it inside the range its data covers; “extrapolated” means the data ran out and the note says what carries the curve from there. Warming reads in Δ°F with the source Δ°C alongside; carbon totals stay in kgCO₂e, the unit every cited factor is published in, with floor-area intensity given per ft². The Wilding/Hatchling landscape lane and the contamination-cap lane are still to come.

Climate — warming offset

Reads: Δ°F warmer than the 1991–2020 average (source Δ°C alongside)

Pure-TS port of Eco-Architect V4's morphing-lite delta math (climate2050.js, Belcher–Hacker–Powell shift term): CMIP6 HighResMIP 3-model ensemble, monthly means 2036–2050 minus 1991–2020, read along the straight line through the two window centres (2005.5 and 2043) and followed to the 2050 data horizon. Past 2050 the site delta is pattern-scaled along the assessed AR6 SSP5-8.5 global pathway (Table SPM.1, rebased off 1850–1900 onto this lane's 1991–2020 reference), which roughly doubles the offset again by 2126.

Misses: Annual-mean dry-bulb shift only: no change to humidity, solar radiation, wind, storms or extremes; a straight line between two window means, not year-by-year variability; the HighResMIP runs follow one high-emissions pathway (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5-like), and monthly deltas hide how unevenly the seasons warm. Past 2050 there is no local model at all — one GLOBAL ratio stretches the 2050 pattern, so late-century frames cannot show this site warming differently from the world average, and AR6's assessment stops at 2090 so the final stretch holds flat below where SSP5-8.5 is still heading. A single best-estimate pathway is drawn as one line: the assessed very-likely range at 2081–2100 spans 3.3–5.7 °C, and emissions are a choice, not a fact about the future.

Carbon — embodied + operational

Reads: kgCO₂e cumulative since handover

Pure-TS port of Eco-Architect's embodied-carbon module (carbon.js: ICE v4.0/CLF 2023 factors × the design's roof-clipped areas and plinth volume, parity-pinned against the vendored engine), charged again at each component service life (B4), plus operations accumulated year by year: conditioned hours × mean draw × that year's grid intensity, the grid running from eGRID2022 down a straight line to the target you set.

Misses: Embodied counts product stage A1–A3 of four fixed build-ups only — no foundations, fixings, finishes, services, transport (A4), construction (A5), end of life (C), or biogenic storage in the timber. Replacement (B4) covers glazing and roof ONLY: the plinth and the wall build-up are assumed to last the century untouched, which no wall does, and replacements are costed at today's factors, so a century of cleaner manufacturing counts for nothing. The service lives are stated assumptions, not durability data — the argument about them is the point, and a component swapped at 30 years instead of 40 changes the answer. Operational assumes a constant draw during conditioned hours on a grid that decarbonizes along a straight line to a target you set — no policy model, no regional grid, no occupancy schedule, no fuel other than electricity — and the eGRID factor counts CO₂ only (not CH₄/N₂O, a slight under-count).

This design: 1,292 ft² floor (120 m²), embodied intensity 23.8 kgCO₂e/ft² (256 kgCO₂e/m²).